This post was originally called Brexit Fallout a Personal View. I wrote it a few days after the seismic Brexit vote on 23rd June 2016. Now, as divorce day with Europe is only 68 days away here are some updates.
Nine Weeks to Go
We are now nine weeks away from what those Brits, who wish to remain in the European Union, see as an Armageddon. All bets are off whether Britain will leave in an orderly fashion, in disarray as a “no deal Brexit” or, will there be another referendum?
Another Poll
Theresa May’s latest Brexit plan was resoundingly defeated, and this week she narrowly survived the largest a no-confidence vote of any Prime Minister in history. After this, an informal poll showed a 12-point lead for remaining in the European Union – the largest margin since the 2016 referendum.
Parliamentary Majority
A majority of the 650 Members of Parliament in the House of Commons supported Remain in the 2016 referendum, as did Theresa May. Only 15% dissented.
Now, with plans stalling, some remainers want to reverse Brexit altogether in a second referendum. Theresa May is resolute in her view that she is carrying out the will of the people – to Brexit. She does not back a second referendum.
If a further referendum were to happen the EU would have to agree to delay or cancel the Article 50 deadline of the UK leaving the EU on 29 March 2019; and in the UK, parliament would have to pass legislation for a new referendum. But it could happen.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who is the frontrunner to succeed Angela Merkel as Germany’s next Chancellor, made a remarkable, impassioned plea this week in a letter to The Times of London calling on Britain to abandon its departure from the EU. Passions are running high.
What If There Were Another Referendum?
In my previous Brexit post I reported, on the day of the vote, Google was inundated with two questions:
“What is the EU?” and
“What will happen if we leave the EU?”
One woman stated, “I just put all that Brexit stuff in the bin.”
Overwhelmingly the British Public is now reported to say, “Lets get on with it and put it behind us.” That could mean there is little appetite for another referendum. And certainly there is no guarantee that the result would be different. But the outcome could be different.
As I stated in my first post. I care deeply for England although I no longer live there. I feel its place is within Europe.
What I do know, is that if there were another referendum, and it reversed Brexit, I would be on the next British Airways flight to England. I would get a taxi to Trafalgar Square and dance in the fountains with a bottle of, yes, French champagne.
Brexit Fallout, A Personal View – July 2016
Like millions of others I followed the Brexit Fallout live. First results brought mild surprise. This turned to consternation then shock.
“Probably the most disastrous single event in British history since the second world war.” Martin Wolf, Saturday’s Financial Times
Brexit Fallout Means Divorce
This is all in sharp contrast four weeks ago at a dinner in London when I had an upbeat conversation.
“London is on fire,” enthused my dinner partner, “the city is so exciting. There are more cranes here than in Shanghai. No city in Europe has this kind of energy and development.”
That was May this is June. Now multinationals are preparing to move and “the world’s most costly messiest divorce” is imminent.
Founding Fathers included Schuman, Churchill and Adenauer
Eleven visionary leaders inspired the European Union. The goal was for a peaceful, united, prosperous Europe after two devastating wars.
In 1957, the Treaty of Rome created the Common Market with six countries; Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands. In 1961 Britain applied to join.
In 1963 President Charles de Gaulle of France laid out impossible conditions for British entry. That drove my father through the roof.
Forget the South of France
Growing up in England we summered on warm Mediterranean beaches. Crossing the channel (in pre-chunnel days) we drove through France enjoying wine regions and Provence. Not in 1963 after De Gaulle’s dictum.
That year father announced we would not spend one franc in France. The car was gassed at Dover, mother had a huge picnic basket and after the usual “brandy to settle the constitution” on the channel ferry, father drove furiously from Calais to the Swiss border. My parents were supporters of the EU concept. I wonder what they would think of the vote and Eurosceptics?
The Morning After Brexit Fallout
Amid market and Global tumult, Prime Minister David Cameron resigning, yards of Tweets, acres of ink and non-stop talking heads, Friday was for me and many others, an unsettled day.
Who voted Leave and who wanted to Remain?
A howl of protest came from the North of England and from areas of stagnant growth with dead-end jobs. The status quo, perceived London elitism, immigration and globalization all fueled a leave vote.
Understandable rankling resentment of bureaucratic dictates and perceived interference from Brussels, especially in farming and fishing practices, fueled more leave votes.
Days of the Empire? Really?
There were many leaves in my generation who did not grow up in the EU.
“I am afraid it is the oldies who have done all the damage, harking back to times when we had the empire…times that can never come again. I weep for the younger generations, ” Dorset Grandmother
“Younger Generation Vents Fury at Older Voters” – Saturday Financial Times
Under-25’s—the better educated, Londoners, Scots and Northern Irish—wanted to remain, is the poll analysis.
“The Wrinklies have done it,” ran an Australian headline. “You have got to be kidding me?” was a recurring younger set Tweet the morning after.
Tony Blair: Sunday morning Quarterback
In an op-ed in today’s New York Times, Tony Blair, former Labour Prime Minister, writes of Brexit’s Stunning Coup which will “have vast consequences for Britain, for Europe and for the World.
“I believed that Britain’s future lay in Europe…the immediate impact..is economic. The lasting effect may be political with global implications….Labour supporters did not get a clear message from their leader Jeremy Corbyn.” Tony Blair
Google Trends flooded with questions
Astonishing revelations from Google Trends are that as the Brexit vote numbers were being counted major UK Google questions were:
What is the EU? and What happens if we leave the EU? Were voters truly aware of the consequences? One woman quoted in the Financial Times said: “I just put all that (voter information) in the bin”.
The Future after Brexit?
My worry is that Brexit Fallout will cause a brain drain, the kind we had before the days of the EU. Will the best, brightest and most educated young people who voted to stay, in fact leave for better opportunity abroad.
I no longer live in England and did not vote, but I am British and care deeply. Generations of men in our family fought for England. This pending divorce makes my heart very sad.
Outstanding piece for those of us on the outside. I think you summarized it beautifully that “Brexit-an opportunity to register an anti-government protest”.
Thank you, Angela.
Thank you Kai. This could have a huge impact on all remaining EU countries, including Estonia. I do know that Putin must be thrilled at any crack in European union.
Excellent, clear and concise. Angela, thank you for your POV, it’s great for us Yanks to hear. It is interesting to hear the many regrets currently expressed by people in Britain who voted to “leave” without understanding the consequences of the action If nothing else, perhaps this will give pause, to forewarn citizens of the US of the potential consequences of each vote cast in our upcoming election.
Thanks Rikki, yes such a swing – so at odds with all pollsters and bookmakers – is indeed food for thought
what people really need to understand is that when you follow the money and the players (as I have been), it is the same people funding and orchestrating these efforts to “divide and conquer” democracies, to destroy the EU and NATO…with the Brexit vote being their test to then implement what works in the U.S. presidential race, then on to France, Germany, Italy…and more. Sobering and real, …and we need to have our eyes and ears wide open, to shine the light on them, become savvy at spotting and avoiding their efforts, and for their efforts to become fully known, exposed and dealt with.
Another subscriber commented that he had read “WTF????” by Preston, former financial times editor. it described cambridge analytics fake new messages to win brexit and the similarity to the trump campaign win in the us.